Sunday, 29 November 2009

West Ham Have Gone Goal Crazy - At Both Ends! Why? Zola explains!


One of the greatest admirers of this blog threw down a challenge yesterday when he posted, "Hammersfan also said at the start of the season that he fears we wont score enough goals, funny how you don't see him refer back to that great prediction dont you." (sic). If we can ignore the terrible tense confusions and failure to employ apostrophes for contractions, and focus on the point made, I must admit that it did set me thinking. I admit that I feared for our Premiership survival based more on our inability to score than on our defensive frailties, so how can I explain the avalanche of goals which accompanies virtually every West Ham game these days?

Well fortunately, the task does not fall solely to me because, being a fan of this blog and seeing the question, Gianfranco decided to step in and supply the answer for me, well went half way towards doing so anyway. According to Zola, it is not the fault of our defence that we are shipping so many goals, but of our midfield. On the eve of the Burnley game, Zola was quoted as saying: "We have to look at the midfielders who are not covering the defence very well. We know the problem and have been working the whole week to sort it out." Please note, that was BEFORE the Burnley game so presumably the training sessions did not prove terribly effective. It would also explain why Kovac was selected ahead of Noble or Jimenez in midfield!

So explaining why we are conceding so many goals is easy. First off, we do not have a quality right back because we failed to buy one. Secondly, we don't have an alternative left back and Ilunga has been injured and is playing poorly. Thirdly, we broke up a very successful centre back pairing when we sold Collins and were slow to see that Tomkins is not yet ready for the Premiership. Fourthly, our keeper hasn't been playing terribly well and is all over the shop at corners and other set pieces. But finally, and crucially, our midfield are no longer offering a defensive screen. Look at the two Fletcher goals yesterday, look how easy it was for Eagles to get in those crosses. Where was the protection for Spector? Collison just was not doing that part of his job. And for the Eagles goal, who tracked back with Mears? It should have been Stanislas presumably but the kid was nowhere to be seen because that's not his game is it?

So, the first part is explained and the explanation of the first goes some considerable way towards explaining the second, how it is that we are now scoring so many goals. This requires a bit of understanding of the mechanics of the game which is why it was beyond the wit and gumption of the anonymous poster who triggered this article.

To begin, before the season kicked off, I posted that we would be in terrible trouble IF we did not sign somebody to play up front with Cole and if Cole himself were to get injured. Well, so far, I have been proved spot on there. When Cole didn't play against Everton, we lost, scoring only once at home, whilst our "goal rush" has followed the arrival of Franco in the team. Before Franco started, we scored 9 in 9 Premiership games, exactly the return I was predicting before the season kicked off when I said that opponents knew they only had to score once to stop us winning. Since Franco has been starting, we have scored 15 in 6, or 10 in 5 if we take out the Burnley game, the return of two goals a game I said we needed to be aiming for.

Unless you have free scoring midfield players like Fabregas or Gerrard, you are heavily reliant on your forwards for goals, so if you play two up front, you double your chances of scoring, as Burnley showed when they brought on a second striker against us yesterday. That isn't rocket engineering is it? And it is exactly what I was saying until we started selecting Franco. My other complaint, that the signing of a striker or two should have been made before the season kicked off, rather than just before the window slammed closed, has been fully vindicated. The points we lost before Franco came into the team can never be retrieved and may yet lead to our relegation. Again not rocket engineering but beyond the power of understanding of many of my critics who kept saying the window hadn't yet closed and so "In Zola and Nani we trust".

Now we go back to that midfield. My critic might also like to check out exactly what I was saying before the season kicked off. My point was that our midfield last season was essentially defensively minded. With a quartet of Behrami, Parker, Noble and Collison, we lacked penetration and creativity in midfield. Parker and Noble for some reason do not compliment each other, Parker only scores a couple of goals each season and Behrami's goal return is, if anything, worse. That left Collison and Di Michele to score, and Di Michele had left to be replaced by Jimenez who was (and remains) unproven in the Premiership. Now that midfield offered a superb screen for the defence. Di Michele (and Bellamy when he played) did drop deep and fill up midfield, Noble and Parker themselves sat deep, and Behrami often looked like an auxiliary right back, protecting the slowing Lucas Neill.

But because of the defensive nature of our midfield, very little goal scoring threat was posed. So, if we needed to draw away from home, we could set up two banks of four, get Di Michele or Bellamy to help out defensively, and say to the opposition, score if you can. With no way down our flanks because of the cover for the fullbacks, or through our middle due to the sheer weight of numbers, opponents were reduced to pumping crosses into our box from deep which our centre backs gobbled up. Remember the Sunderland game last season when Collins must have headed out more crosses than a Brazilian centre back deals with in a whole career? But then when it came to stopping us scoring, how easy was it for opposing managers? There were not enough goals in the team because of the personnel involved - simples.

Well that personnel has now changed. Instead of Di Michele, we have Franco; Diamanti has offered an exciting new dimension when used; Stanislas is a goal scoring midfielder; and the offensively minded Collison, in the last two high scoring games, has effectively replaced Behrami, who was in Noble's role against Hull and absent against Burnley. And importantly, Parker has been released from the shackles of the defensive anchor role and is ranging forward. He has looked brilliant as a result, but when he surges forward and we lose possession, our defence is as exposed as a flasher on Clapham Common!

So why are we scoring more? Because we have more goals in the team! Why are we conceding more? Because we have less defensively minded players in the team. Not rocket engineering really is it? Why didn't I call it before the season kicked off? I did. Look at our goal return before Franco came into the team and the goal return since. Look at our goal return before Stanislas started and our goal return since he has. The problem is, the team is still imbalanced, but now in the opposite way. There is no point in stopping the opposition from scoring more than one if you struggle to score one yourselves; and there is no point in scoring two every game if the opposition are scoring two or three! It is the inability of Zola and Clarke to find a happy balance that is the problem! Zola's face at the end of the game yesterday said it all; it was the face of an angry man even though we had won, scoring five goals. He knows that if we play like that against Man Utd, we will be annihilated!

The big questions should now be:

1) Why didn't we move quicker to sign a couple of strikers? The points we lost as a result have consigned us to a relegation struggle rather than pushing for a top 8 finish.
2) Why didn't we sign a right back and somebody ready to cover Ilunga in the event of injury or loss of form?
3) What do we now do to sort out our defence? The last two games have been thrilling but 6 goals were conceded against two teams who will finish in the bottom 6. That is frightening!
4) What happens if Cole and Franco are injured? The last 30 minutes yesterday with Jimenez and Hines up front were terrifying. God help us if we are ever reduced to starting with these two. And please don't say Nouble. He is a raw kid who isn't even prolific in the reserves.

20 comments:

  1. Very good analysis. Well said!

    We won and yet it feels like a defeat! Why? Because we fell apart, again!

    Why is it so hard for anyone to notice how bad Gabbidon is? He was responsible for two of the goals. He turned around and let the attacker dribble him in the first goal and he fell on the ground as if to block a pass when he should have stood his ground in the third goal. It brings back memories of the 6-0 thrashing at Reading. Spector is also useless. Any team can unlock our defence through the wings, especially the right wing. It is a good thing Burnley realised this only after 65 minutes of the game today. Scoring 5 goals and worrying whether you will actually win the game with 25 minutes on the clock is a really a new experience for me! If we need to score 3-4 goals to get three points we are really doomed. We desperately need to buy a good right wing defender in January. It's our only chance.

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  2. Excellent article.I am surprised though you have not slated our centre backs.Not dominant in the air,and poor man markers,and their distribution from defence is too slow and indecisive.I would welcome a clearout in that department in the JANUARY window.Keep UPSON ,TOMPKINS, DA COSTA,and ILUNGA and bring in a first choice centre back to partner UPSON with experience and aerial strength,and a left and right back that can walk straight into the side with solid defending ability and pace to work the wings.ILUNGA'S drop in form worries me.FAUBERT is not a right back,keep him as a right winger.As far as the midfield inbalance in concerned it is a puzzler to solve with our current personnel.I definitely like the role ZOLA used PARKER yesterday,a real breath of fresh air to our attacking prowess down the middle.I think ZOLA needs to look for a similar type of player to PARKER who can play both a defensive and attacking role in midfield .NOBLE,COLLISON,JIMENEZ nor DIAMANTI can fill that role effectively.The same is true for COLLISON and STANISLAS when playing out on the wings,they lack in trekking back as part of the defensive part of their game.FAUBERT is probably our best option on the wing.So basically ZOLA needs near enough,not only a new defence but a new midfield,to get that balance....

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  3. Essex, I intend posting tomorrow my solution to the connundrum based on our present squad.

    The problem with the idea of selling our present players is that the money will simply be used to service the debt mountain, not to buy replacements.

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  4. Now where is our anonymous friend who threw down the challenge I wonder? It's all gone quiet over there! There being Sulk Corner!

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  5. That is why we so desperately need a takeover pretty damn quick before the JANUARY window comes upon us.As far as attaining the right balance in the team I don't think it is possible with our current squad. ZOLA has swapped and changed a number of players,tinkered with the formation and has I think deduced the best team for a defensive style of play and the best team for an attacking style of play but he has not gelled the two together successfully.Apart from PARKER none of our other midfielders can both hold and attack in the midfield well,that is the root of the problem.We lack that calibre of player with his level of fitness.

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  6. Are you the same Essex that contributes to the Org?

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  7. The Incredible Sulk30 November 2009 at 00:23

    lol @: Now where is our anonymous friend who threw down the challenge I wonder? It's all gone quiet over there! There being Sulk Corner!

    I'm here! It's only been a day, did you miss me? Thanks for the English lesson aswell :). Also glad to see such an extensive response to a great admirer of your blog, you do sarcasm so well, touché? As for the tense confusions comment I am confused myself but I'll put it down to a misunderstanding.

    I may quote hammersfan when we signed Franco if I may: '
    General Franco managed 86 minutes for Mexico in a World Cup qualifying international yesterday and, according to the OS, played a part in two of the goals - albeit, he didn't score himself, which is the chief reason why we have signed him!'

    'So why is it? Maybe, just maybe, Franco, like Bellyache and Tristan, is only at the club for the paypacket and lacks the hunger to do it out on the pitch in Claret and Blue. "Me, I only play in green!"'

    I dillied and dallied for as long as possible to save wages, and sold James Collins but, in the end, I had to sign somebody. I did not force Franco on Gianfranco, I gave the manager a choice, between an overweight Aussie striker who he knew couldn't cut it any longer in the Prem and an injury prone Mexican with no experience of English football whatsoever."

    You claimed to have said we needed another striker before the season started, however this clearly doesn't sound like the man you think we needed.

    I will check the blog every 5 seconds next time sir to make sure I reply immediatly, can I leave detention now please?

    Yours sincerely,

    The Incredible Sulk

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  8. Play Noble as the defensive midfielder and release Parker into a more attacking role.

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  9. Yes indeed HF

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  10. Good to have you looking in Essex. i am not digging here but the debate on the Org is now rather sterile isn't it? Has robert been banned because he criticised Davefking? He hasn't posted for some time now. Hope not because he is a passionate Hammer: but then, since when has that stopped somebody from being banned from the Org?

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  11. To The Incredible Sulk, is that the best you can come up with? Yep, Franco has very pleasantly surprised me - and a lot of other people too. I was not alone in expressing concern about him playing for Mexico when not fit to play for ourselves. Comparisons were made with Bellyache's appearances for Wales on the Org.

    This simply vindicates the point I made before the season kicked off. Had he been signed in the summer, he would have been fit to play earlier in the season. How many more points might we now have? I reckon we would have beaten Fulham, Blackburn and Wigan persobally. Seven more points would have seen us sitting pretty at this stage wouldn't it? Instead we fannied around and only went for Franco when there was nothing else left. Given how good he is, why didn't we move for him earlier?

    Anyway T.I.S. (Good pun by the way!)you didn't ask me to justify my comments on Franco. Do you accept my analysis of how the problem has changed? Do you accept that without Franco we were averaging what I predicted, one goal a game, and that when Cole was injured, the same average was maintained? Do you accept that a second striker has made a phenominal difference to our scoring record but that we remain vulnerable in that area because of the lack of experienced cover? Do you accept the point I have made about the change to our midfield and how that has solved one problem but created another?

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  12. The Incredible Sulk30 November 2009 at 18:27

    I was not disuputing the points you were making, in fact I thought they were very obvious to any who plays football manager or anyone with a footballing brain. My original point was that I have noticed you like to take us back to your fantastic predictions whenever they are proved 'right', I therefore think it is only right you take us back to any wrong predictions you have made and highlight those badboy e.g your comments doubting Franco was the man for the job. Your role as the West Ham malcontent bores me and many others, and if the club makes you that depressive then maybe you do more then complain on the internet.

    I would like to say now that I believe Jimenez will come good. You do not. Remember these predictions come the end of the season and we shall talk more in detail then.

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  13. Sorry HF ,I'm not really into the niggly banter that goes on between some of the guys on the ORG,I just let them get on with it.All I know there is alot of passionate fans out there who have a good knowledge of our club and the football we play each week.Its just a shame these fans have not got more to cheer about for their loyalty.

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  14. LOL Fair enough TIS. Obviously I hope Jimenez does come good but I must say that it is an act of blind faith based on what we have seen so far. I suppose it depends on what you mean by "comes good". Remember, he is meant to be worth £8m - though he can't get into a very ordinary international team at the moment.

    Of course I will get some things wrong. The law of averages says that if I post every day, I will make the odd wrong call. I do think, however, that I can legitimately claim to getting most things right.

    You have predicted Jimenez will succeed before the end of the season. I don't think I would be prepared to make any predictions at this stage. Until we know what is happening to us financially, I think predictions are impossible.

    Here's a few though:

    1) If we sell Upson and don't source a replacemnt centre back, we will go down.

    2) If we sell Cole to service the debt, we will go down.

    3) If Cole or Parker pick up long term injuries, we will go down.

    4) Duxbury will be shown the door before Easter.

    5) Ashton will never play again.

    6) We will not get more than 42 points this season.

    7) The highest we will finish is sixth from bottom.

    8) We will go out of the FA Cup to Arsenal.

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  15. Well they are all jolly predictions aren't they? Sounds to me like supporting West Ham is a chore for you.

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  16. Jolly? Since when are predictions meant to be jolly? I hope I am wrong with most of them. Mind you, I would take 42 points and sixth from bottom at the moment, wouldn't you?

    Duxbury going is a jolly prediction surely?

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  17. I thought you spoke sarcasm?

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  18. I found your site on technorati and read a few of your other posts. Keep up the good work. I just added your RSS feed to my Google News Reader. Looking forward to reading more from you in the future!

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  19. Cheers highlights! Good to have you on board.

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