So Avram has woken up to the importance of Carlton Cole to West Ham, and not before time! Carlton has his critics amongst the Upton Park “faithful” but if they checked out the stats over the last two seasons, they might appreciate better why Cole is so vital to our fortunes.
Last season we only won 8 Premiership games and Cole was in the side for 7 of those victories! In order, our victories were as follows:
Won against Wolves, Cole played.
Won against Villa, Cole played.
Won against Burnley, Cole played.
Won against Pompey, Cole didn’t play.
Won against Birmingham, Cole played.
Won against Hull, Cole played.
Won against Sunderland, Cole played.
Won against Wigan, Cole played.
So, we won 7 games with Cole in the team, and only one when he was absent – and that one was at home to bottom of the table Pompey! The win ratio when Cole started was 27%. The win ratio when Cole didn’t start was a miserly 8%! Had we maintained a win ratio of 27% over the full season we would have collected 33 points without drawing any games. Had we won just 8% of our games we would have collected just 9 points from winning matches over the season.
If we go back to the previous season, we find a similar picture. Cole started the same number of Premiership games – 26 – and scored the same number of goals – 10. West Ham won 14 Prem games that season and Cole played in all bar 2 of them. With Cole in the team we had a win ratio of 46%. Without Cole in the team we had a win ratio of 16%. Had we maintained the 46% win ratio over the whole season, we would have secured 52 points without drawing any games. The win ratio without Cole in the team would have seen us secure just 18 points from victories!
So, had Cole stayed fit all season, we would have comfortably qualified for the Europa League; had he been injured all season, we would have finished bottom of the table!
I think these statistics suggest that Cole is a vital member of the team, don’t you?
Good work HF. I think those stats will surprise a lot of people.
ReplyDeleteBy the way,; Zola get some credit for this? I'm sure you would have blamed him for the reverse i.e should you have found similar evidence of a players negative influence on a team under Zola.
The improvement started under Curbishley mate! Zola's folly was to not sign another out and out striker after Bellamy departed. Had he done so, Cole's stats might not look so impressive!
ReplyDeleteCome on HF, you know Zola was a big influence on arguably our most important player. Cole says so himself. Credit where it's due!
ReplyDeleteHe was a failure until Zola turned him into an international.
He may have started getting games under Curbishley, but it was under Zola he improved.
ReplyDeleteRanieri described himas the best young player he had ever worked with Stani. Cole has matured. He was maturing under Curbishley and, in fact, had a dip after Zola took charge. He then picked up again but most will agree he was back in a dip by the end of Zola's reign. Carlton is a confidence player. When his confidence is high, he is VERY good. When his confidence is low, he is less effective.
ReplyDeleteGrant has already said that Cole is playing well because the team have a shape and are playing as a team. Zola's incompetence undermined Cole last season. He was asked to do an impossible job because the team were utterly shite and had no shape whatsoever. As a result, Cole was receiving hopelessly overhit balls out of defence, back to goal with nobody near him. He looked clueless as a result but Shearer in his prime would have struggled given Zola's selections and tactics.
Ilan's belated introduction changed that and benefited from Cole drawing defenders to him. Look at Ilan, he is moving to Arab football, that's how crap he is, but even he could score in the Prem up alongside Cole!
Total and utter twaddle - you've been doing really well.... people have laid off you and given you credit where it's been due. But you've gone back to being totally ridiculous again..... it is well documented that Zola did an awful lot in helping Cole develop.
ReplyDeleteIt might be "well documented" but is it true? Was Cole any better at the end of last season than he was at the beginning of Zola's reign? I don't think he was. Cole scored once in his last 12 appearances last season. If you ignore his opening spell under Pardew, when he was used almost exclusively as a sub, that was his worst return whilst at the club. Why? Maybe the injury but probably because of Zola's crap team selection and tactics. If a team doesn't get the ball into the box, how can a forward score? Cole was still trying his heart out but the service was truly dire.
ReplyDeleteYou actually put a compelling case and, almost against my better judgement, I find myself hoping that Cole remains. That said, I'd still have preferred us to but another striker - one with pace as well as an eye for goal. There are far too many occasions on which Cole goes one on one ahd fails miserably and I personally doubt that will change. However, if he stays fit (a big if perhaps) he is presumably likely to get 15 goals a season which isn't so bad and a decent contribution towards the 50 goals we will need if we are to aim for a top half finish.
ReplyDeleteHi Headmaster. Of course if there were better understudies at the club, Cole's record might not have looked so good as I say above.
ReplyDeleteGood to see you looking in again. As for scoring when one on one with the keeper, I'm not sure Cole will ever be great at that myself - he thinks too much about it and is at his best when he just pulls the trigger instantly.
Thanks for the appreciation HF! It's good to be here.
ReplyDeleteI mentioned the 50 goals thing. Of course last year, despite Cole's retuen of only 10, we actually managed that. The problem, lest we forget, was at the other end.
I think sometimes in the transfer window fans (and management?) get caught up in the glamour signings in terms of creative attacking players and neglect the 'must do' jobs which actually give the team a platform on which to perform.
Maybe Ben Haim is the answer. Then again.....
I think the absence of any shape was a large part of the problem, and picking Spector at left back, and using Tomkins and Da Costa before they were fully cooked. If we don't sell him, I have high hopes that Da Costa will be our new Collins this season. And, of course, Gabbidon is fit again. One more defensive recruit should do the job in my opinion - ideally a pacey, specialist right back who can head a ball. How long is it since we've had one of them?
ReplyDeleteI think you're being unfair on Zola HF. Your negativity bias towards him generally, is clouding your judgement on this one particular issue which viewed alone, is clear. Don't worry, if you say a nice thing about Zola HF, it won't mean you'll wake up tomorrow and find your worst nightmare has come true and he's still our manager! :)
ReplyDeleteYeh, I did know of how highly Ranieri regarded him but that was just potential, he hadn't fulfilled it anywhere he went. There is a reason he ended up at West Ham! Best young players usually leave West Ham, not come to us :)
By the end of Zola's reign, Cole was hampered by injuries so I don't think we should read too much into that. I agree he is a confidence player but most strikers are to some extent.
Headmaster,
I'm glad you've come to see what Iain Dale is. Just a shame you had to gang up with him against me to get me removed from his blog some time ago. But I'm not one to hold grudges. Plus, had I not left there, I probably wouldn't have ended up here. Interesting you've taken that journey too. Welcome to a blog where you're entitled to an opinion...even if it is that Noble is rubbish.
...since Lucas Neill HF? ;)
ReplyDeleteGoes to show that you can twist any stats to suit your own argument when it suits you. You omit to mention that Spector played in 7 of those wins last season.
ReplyDelete23:51 Headmaster feck off back to Iain.... loser!
ReplyDeleteLOL 0821, I know you are desperate to stop this site growing but that is below the beslt is it not?
ReplyDeleteI am obviously not going to intervene in any disputes you guys may have. Providing the language isn't obscene and there is no racism, you can go at each other as much as you like. And at me. But if we could try to mention West Ham in each comment, I'm sure others would be appreciative.
LOL 0712, if that was right then that would be a brilliant reply. Spector only STARTED in 4 of the victories actually, and against Wigan STARTED is key because his own goal gave Wigan a goal start! Also, he was in the DEFENCE in the 5-3 home victory over Burnley, not something to put on your CV perhaps!
ReplyDeleteMind you, Spector's win ratio is 22%. Spread over the full season that would see us gain 8 victories and, over the season, we gained 8 victories. So, including Spector would appear to equate to relegation form.
Nice try though!
Actually that proves how good Cole is! We won 4 games EVEN WITH Spector in the team!
ReplyDeleteNot sure who Stani Army is or how he reaches the conclusion that I ganged up on him with Mr Dale as it goes!
ReplyDeletePerhaps he'd care to remind me.
I had a different name there, but let's just move on hey? You have realised who Dale is, I'm happy with this outcome.
ReplyDeleteNow I'm intrigued!
ReplyDeleteYou stop it and concentrate on keeping your arms open for the flood of immigrants from WHTID :)
ReplyDelete