Now, the big issue is clearly our league position. We are second from bottom again after West Brom's point at Stoke, and that is not good enough, but are things as bad as they seem?
To begin, why are we where we are in the table? Results wise, it boils down to a handful of games, and we didn't even play in some of them! Let's dispense with some freak results for starters. Take off Blackpool's two wins over Liverpool, and they would be on 26 points, 2 points behind us. Then there is West Brom's incredible victory at Arsenal. That was a crazy, crazy result in a crazy, crazy season! I won't go on about the Wolves victories because I think they are a better team than they are given credit for. The three teams who SHOULD go down this season are West Brom, Blackpool and Wigan.
But you make your own luck and we still have to account for a miserable total of 28 points thus far. That's easily done because it boils down to the draw against Blackpool at Upton Park, the 3 points lost at home to Newcastle and the home draw against West Brom. Chalk up those 7 points and we would be sitting relatively comfortably on 35 points, with Blackpool on 31 points and West Brom on 28. I certainly would not be sweating on relegation with just 5 points needed to guarantee safety.
Of course, there is also that appalling Clattenbung decision at Wolves which cost us 2 points by striking off Piquionne's perfectly legitimate goal with the last kick of the game. I know these sorts of things are meant to even themselves out over a season but how many teams lose a perfectly good goal scored with literally the last kick of the game against a major rival? Just keeping those two points would have changed the picture dramatically. We would be on 30 points now, and out of the bottom three. People are blaming Grant; Clattenbung would be a more worthy target for ire!
But the real killers for our season were utterly beyond Avram's control. Firstly, the computer gave us a truly nightmare start. As soon as that fixture list came out, we knew it spelt trouble. Villa away, Bolton at home, Man Utd away and Chelsea at home? We were always going to be playing catch up after that start! And so it has proved. Recovering for four straight defeats at the start of the season has proved a nightmare.
And, of course, as the return of Hitz has shown, the entire balance of Avram's team was destroyed by Der Hammer's injury playing for Germany before the season even started. Again, I accept all teams suffer injuries but we have had more than our fair share. Apart from Hitz, and predictably Dyer, there have been the long term injuries to Collison and Hines. Just when Obinna was finding form, he was injured; and of course Keane joined and broke down. We've lost Upson for key games, da Costa for a sizeable chunk of the season, Jacobsen for important games, Noble for two spells, Behrami for most of the season for which he was available, Ilunga (some might say luckily)...and Cole has had to be nursed through injuries. Even Green has missed games.
Does anybody really believe we would be in the bottom three now had Hitzlspurger been available for the first half of the season? How, exactly is that Grant's fault?
Now, let's turn to recent form. Since Christmas, we have lost just 4 games in all competitions. We have won 8 games and drawn 3 times. If we ignore the Cup games, that record still reads 4 wins, 3 defeats and 3 draws. That is 15 points from 10 games or 1.5 points per match. Average that over a season and you have 57 points! That is Avram's team's current form, and he took over a side that was in complete disarray after Zola's chaotic reign.
Now, let's just include the Cup games in Avram's record. We have now won 14 games so far this season in 37 competitive fixtures. That is a win percentage of 38%. Zola's win percentage was below 30% and Avram's betters Curbishley's. The goal return of 53 also represents good entertainment value when set alongside the goals per game return of his two predecessors.
Tell me, how many times have we looked awful this season? At home to Arsenal and away to Newcastle Villa and Liverpool, but West Ham always have those sort of nighmare results over the course of a season. When we lost at home to Chelsea and Bolton, we played pretty well. Until Spector gave away a stupid penalty, we were competing at Old Trafford. We were preciously close to pulling off a draw at Arsenal. In truth, we have been "in with a chance" in most games this season and at times have played some scintillating forward. We played Spurs off the park and hammered Liverpool on Sunday and Man Utd in the Cup. We were unlucky not to win at Everton too, with another ludicrous refereeing decision robbing us of the victory.
When Grant arrived, we were in a mess. We only survived last season because there were three crap teams in the division. Duxbury, Nani, Zola and Clarke had inherited a reasonable squad and turned us into a joke, with no full backs, no wide midfielders and no team shape whatsoever. Grant identified the weaknesses and sourced a utility defender (Ben Haim), two wingers (Barerra & Obinna) a striker (Piquionne), a right back (Jacobsen) and a goal scoring midfielder (Hitz), and did so on a shoestring. Each of those signings made perfect sense, and whilst Barerra and Reid have disappointed so far, they are young and may yet come good. Had Hitz remained fit, I reckon we would be in the top half of the table now.
So, when you look at the facts, Avram's record isn't that bad. Based on current form, we are a top half team. The question is, can we maintain that record until the end of the season? If we do, we finish on 43 points, and not even West Ham can go down with that points total surely?
So, our season now comes down to some key, key games: at home to Stoke, Blackburn and Sunderland, and away to Wigan. If we win those, we have 40 points, 5 more than we ended up with last season. A point at home to Villa and away to Bolton would take us to 42 points. And wouldn't it be special to win at White Hart Lane?
I'm certainly not getting cocky; it could all go tits up when we play Stoke. But that Liverpool result was special and may yet carry the same importance as our victory away to Blackburn under Turds. We stayed up that year because we were lucky - remember that winner at Blackburn? - but the luck has been against us so far this season. Remember, Zola's team only had to beat ten men when we played away to Sunderland and Arsenal, and at home to Villa, Bolton and Fulham. They only managed to win one of those games! The table doesn't show it, but the progress has been steady. IF we survive, we could kick on next season!
Avram may yet blow bubbles!
"It looks as if Avram's card is marked and that he will be out of the door come the end of the season", why do you say that? Have I missed a statement made by the club somewhere?
ReplyDeleteIf we do stay up I hope he stays, given a few decent players replacing the garbage from the last regime and a healthy squad, I think he could turn us into a good side.
How else can you interpret Sullivan's explanation of why Grant wasn't sacked? Bruiser told the Press, “Changing managers mid-season doesn’t usually work". What a ringing endorsement that is! He might as well have said, "The guy's a useless cnut but when you're in mid shag, you stay with the cnut you've got!"
ReplyDeleteHe would have to get Gold on side who has been Grant's staunchest backer.
ReplyDeleteIf we do finish on 43+ points/safety and quite possibly an FA Cup semi or even a final, plus reaching the Carling Cup semi, given the circumstances this season with injury/the crapness of the initial squad, it would be very very harsh to get rid of the man.
Let's just take it one game at a time, it could all be undone against Stoke this weekend.
Your assertion that AV's card is marked is based on such flimsey evidence you could work for the Mail. I interpret the statement as an explaination of the debacle that happend over the new year. Two managers in two years is no good to anyone. Gullivan arn't fools, next season needs to be steady and stable. We have the basis of a good team, 5th manager in 6 years in will do no one any good.
ReplyDeleteDid he say, Avram will be our manager next season?
ReplyDeletei would give him another season, sick of keep getting rid of managers all the time, the reason we are where we are is injuries and lack of effort from the likes of cole and upson, we now have the qsuad to stay up if they put everything into it.
ReplyDeleteMark my words, Grant will stay. The statement you have quoted in the replies wasn't meant as a statement of intent. You seem to read headlines like the Daily Mail political team........with complete blindness.
ReplyDeleteam distinctly detecting some cautious hope creeping into your blogs HF...lets hope everyone's confidence is rising... Stoke are gonna be slippery,but our team is looking almost at grants realistic optimum
ReplyDelete..even if we get another back like collison another will go down and so it goes but we are looking closer to the real thing..reckon we will get a clean sheet...0-0 as if!lets say 3-1 and as stani said suck huth in and dont give the kick to Noble,true Hammer that he is
give it to der hammer.oh to be out of the bottom three for days rather than hours. come on you Irons
Grant has been able to identify the key areas (eventually) and balance the squad to a certain extent. He still doesnt give me the impression that he can manage most of these players though or the team as a whole. For all we know Scotty might still be giving the half-time team talks
ReplyDeleteHowever there is no doubt that if we had not had all the injuries this season and if Hitz had been available from the start we would already be safe. We would have just be too good to go down (but really this time).
Did you see how animated he was against Liverpool? That is something we havent seen all season. If he can keep this form until the end of the season and keep demonstrating this passion perhaps he will win over the fans after all. Myself included.
I think they haven't made up a decission yet. It depends if and how we survive. Sullivan just explained why they sticked with Avram and didn't get rid of him in the mid season...and they preferred to skip the Martin O'Neill part of course.
ReplyDelete23:43: No he didnt say he will be manager next season but the Glazers also havent come out and said Ferguson will be at Man Utd next season either. By youre logic we should all asume Fergie will be sacked aswell. Youre reading far too much into a very small quote.
ReplyDeleteYou make me laugh HF, one minute down, then your'e up!
ReplyDeleteI think we'll stay up, I said 50:50a couple of weeks ago, now I put our chances at 60%, and 70% if we beat Stoke.
Just out of interest what is the Grant/Zola index at the moment?
JC
So what you're basically saying is our players were crap HF? That sounds a little like my argument when Zola was getting criticised :)
ReplyDeleteIf we had stuck with him and supported him with quality players, we would have been much further down the line with a better coach than Grant and a learned manager with years in front of him.
We have been worse under Grant than you make out in this post, which is probably why you had to devote the column inches to it. But there are more worse teams this season than the three that apparently kept us up last season. Lucky us hey? Really, if you're honest, we should be long gone by now. Thanks to them we are not.
We will be wasting time making excuses for this guy and keeping him on. Consistently rooted to the foot of the league with two sides for almost two seasons is not bad luck, it's bad management.
A good assumption/prediction...for what it's worth I would stick with Avram next season as I do not feel he has had a fair rub of the green.Most of the deadwood are out of contract come the summer and I am mightly impressed with his signings thus far (Barrera being the only potential blot).
ReplyDeleteMaybe his backroom staff need tinkering as WD has yet to give us a clean sheet but, also a character to instill some WHU passion and pride (an ex-hammer).
Confidence should be high I just hope they don't believe their own hype as our run in is by far the hardest out of the bottom dwellers but I do believe we are the best team at the bottom. The period of the season when we should've secured our premiership status was squandered and the opening and closing periods of the season (our hardest games) are what could define us.
a bit off topic but i have a good post for you HF if we stay up which players out of our current squad (dont have to be in the 25) would you keep for next year and then who would you let go and who would you sign to fill positions you thing we need.for example the wayne bridge issue even tho i doubt hes on 90k a week you are right you could easily look in the championship and find a decent enought left back and eve nthought he isnt amazing id say he could be a bettre option then paying bridge an extreme salar ynex tyear and that is re-sign paul konchesky hes not perfect but he makes less mistakes then wayne bridge and can cross a ball fine and he would be pretty cheap or theres the resigning of george maccartney who isnt a bad player
ReplyDeleteWhat I am basically saying Stani is that Zola took over a decent squad of players and had an agenda, 4-3-3, with left footers on the right and right footers on the left which proved our undoing. He first disorientated Etherington and then sold him. He has never been replaced. He dropped, ignored and sold Bowyer and instead asked Parker to move further forward in midfield - a job you admit he is unsuited to. As a result of losing both Etherington and Bowyer - two Zola decisions, we lost width to our midfield and a goal threat from midfield. Instead, Zola and Nani sourced Jimenez, who was crap, and then to address the loss of Ethherington and Bowyer, sacrificed Collins so we could sign Diamanti. We have never replaced Collins - we would not be in this position had he been available to play centre back - and Zola couldn't even find a way of accommodating Diamanti into his team. Then there was the replacement of Bellamy with Savio. Again, that was all about 4-3-3, with Zola wanting one man down the middle and two players on the flanks.
ReplyDeleteIt was that 4-3-3 obsession, chasing players to fit that shape, that undid us. When he couldn't find the right players, he just played the wrong players out of position! Diamanti was used in midfield and, surprise, surprise, was found wanting defensively. Behrami was used wide left and wide right, even though he can't cross a ball or shoot. Parker was given the midfield general role even though he was unsuited to it. Neill was allowed to go and was not replaced so we ended up with Faubert at right back and Spector at left back! In fact, we had Spector, Faubert, Diamanti, Behrami, Parker and Stanislas all doing jobs they weren't suited to at the same time! It's no bloody wonder we were a mess!
That was down to Zola. On Sunday we had a team of players playing in their correct positions, and what a difference it made. Hitz was on the left of our midfield three, Noble on the right and Parker down the middle. Balance! We had a left footed left back and a right footed right back. Balance! We had two central defenders who BOTH now have experience of playing in the Prem. Balance! It's what Grant has been striving for but struggling to achieve because of what Zola left behind!
Fred, I don't dare do that. Any presumption of survival will guarantee we go down!
ReplyDeleteHF,
ReplyDeleteWhen Zola had the decent squad, we finished 9th. It is not like there is no proof what he can do with a decent squad. The squad went in decline not because he decided to go 4-3-3 as you continue to repeat, but because of the financial situation of the club. If it was because he went 4-3-3, then we would have been crap from the moment he took over. But we weren't. He improved us and we were getting lots of praise for the way we were playing. You are forgetting this. If everything you say about Zola was true, then how did he lead us to 9th? This was no fluke mate.
As for Bowyer; did you see the story the other day that Brum are letting him go? It was just that the other day you were arguing against Sav how McCleish is getting the best out of him etc.
Did you see the cricket HF? Terrible. (webcric.com)
Fred,
I think G&S will try to do the minimum in terms of playing personnel. It's up to Grant to put pressure on them, assuming he's still there.
My guess is that at the end of the season, Brady will say it's either him or me
ReplyDeleteHave you applied for the job then? God help us!
ReplyDeleteNobody made him sell Etherington and Bowyer. Did we get anything for the thug anyway? Zola chose to ignore both. He drove them out of the club and neither wanted to go. Bowyer isn't getting any younger which is why Birmingham are letting him go, but he has got 70+ appearances under his belt since joining them.
ReplyDeleteI will repeat that Zola CHOSE to sell Collins in order to buy Diamanti and then didn't know how to fit him into the team. He also CHOSE to buy Kovac!
Yeh, and I'm looking for an assistant :) Na actually, I'd sack Noble and play as the creative spark, slipping some tasty balls through and pulling the strings.
ReplyDeleteDid you see Kolarov's corner today?
Etherington was playing poorly and having trouble with his gambling addiction. He's hardly taken the league by storm anyway so it's a pointless argument. He didnt even start the last game. He had to sell Collins to save the club. Sullivan admitted this in the press conference! So why did Grant sell Diamanti then? For the budget Zola had, what more could he get than Kovac. And Kovac did better than Bowyer mind. Is that all you can muster as argument against him? It does nothing to the fact that he took us to 9th!!!! when he had a good squad. And they didnt start off playing well, he made them play well and got plaudits and a new contract for it.
HF mate = sorry to have to say this but a medical professional I pretty sure you are Bipolar. Your regular bouts of acute depression followed by what can only be described as near psychotic highs would lead anyone in know to the same conclusion and dianosis.
ReplyDeleteBipolar disorder or manic-depressive disorder, is a psychiatric diagnosis that describes a category of mood disorders defined by the presence of one or more episodes of abnormally elevated energy levels, cognition, and mood with or without one or more depressive episodes.
The elevated moods are clinically referred to as mania or, if milder, hypomania.
Individuals who experience manic episodes also commonly experience depressive episodes, or symptoms, or mixed episodes in which features of both mania and depression are present at the same time.... which in your case is clearly outlined in the highs and lows expressed in this blog.
I wouldn't too disappointed because there are some wonderful cognitive treatments and medications available these days which can help all but the most severe cases live a normal and rewarding life.
Phone SANE: 0845 767 8000 (daily, 6pm-11pm)
Less talk about 'slipping tasty balls' please mate. You are banned from that site now remember?
ReplyDeletein defence of ethrington ,regardless of personal probs he is a skillfull player ,his stats,castrol rankings etc show him to be stokes best performer and way ahead of our best parker......there was plenty of football left in him,we should never have offed him...just needed a manager who can man manage,and thats not Zola or Grant........never ending optimism just doesnt cut it for me...maybe why I like your blog ~HF !not that I am suggesting you for management.was wondering if stoke would give us three points if we give em a semi final,a few whispers in the tunnel Saturday..desperate times take desperate
ReplyDeletedeeds ha ha .come on you Irons
But I'm pretty good Chunky, at free-kicks too. I always go for the bender personally. And I do love a crunching hard tackle, especially from behind.
ReplyDeleteNow we have some decent strikers, I would love to play with them. Although had we signed Darren Bent a couple of seasons back, both our strikers would have been Keane and Bent. It would be a joy to slot in right behind them two.
I still don't know why he banned me. I'm such a lovely boy.
Never mind Dale, your Mosque will ban you mate if they find out you wrote that!
ReplyDeleteBi polar JC, doesn't that involve an Inuit threesome? Of course, there is that famous gay dyslexic eskimo known as Itinu - or Iain for short!
ReplyDeleteHaa, its worrying how much thought both of you put into that ;-)
ReplyDelete