The Dog Fight at the Bottom

With Blackburn winning tonight, the importance of back to back victories against City and Wigan has come sharply into focus. Just imagine for a moment if Ribena had put away that first half chance and we had slipped to another 1-0 home defeat. Confidence would have been low going into the Wigan game and another defeat would have been probable. Take off those six points and we would be sitting on a very vulnerable 33 points, just 5 ahead of Pompey who are third from bottom with a game in hand. On such margins does a season turn. Zola's stock is soaring at the moment; but he would have been as popular as an ex RBS Chairman had we found ourselves sitting just a point ahead of Tottenham and out of the Cup into the bargain!

The question is, how many points will it take to stay up? Well with Pompey third from bottom with a point more than games played, it is beginning to look as if a minimum of 40 will be required to survive. The nightmare of relegation despite accumulating 42 points is still too fresh in my memory for me to relax entirely. Yes, I can hear the half glass empty jibes and know that relegation from this position should be beyond even West Ham, but I will remain anxious until we have hit 43 points. Zola can aim for Europe; I still have half an eye on that drop zone!

Who will go down? West Brom will drop, even if they complete the double over us at Upton Park on Monday, but the other two is still anybody's guess. Boro should go but the corpse kicked back against ourselves and Liverpool in their last two home games so they can't be written off yet. Pompey have removed the millstone of Adams from their neck and have a reasonable squad of players: James, Campbell, Johnson and Crouch surely should not be in a relegated side - but then again, two of those went down with us! Newscastle remain an intriguing possibility. Going forward they look far too good to drop but they do have a self destruct button at the back which could see them throw away vital points. We went down with Di Canio, Kanoute and Cole because we couldn't defend so why shouldn't Newscastle with Owen, Martins and Duff?

Blackburn? It was a huge result at Fulham and I fancy Allardyce to work his magic. They will punch their way to safety aka Bolton. Hull looked dead until they won at Fulham and I still fancy them to go. The team is ordinary at best and the management team don't look so great all of a sudden. One very bad piece of transfer business and suddenly Phil Brown looks human and it was always going to need somebody superhuman to keep this Hull team up. Stoke should also go but they don't seem to understand that. The script for the season, which had all three promoted teams relegated, seems to have got lost in the post and this team of brick shithouses may yet secure a place in next season's Prem; unless Ethers has backed them to stay up of course!

Bolton surely won't go - their home form should see them to safety. Tottenham definitely won't be in the Fizzy Pop next season, they possess far too much ability. Fulham, however, might now be looking anxiously over the shoulder. Home defeats against Hull and Blackburn is not what you need at this stage of the season. Confidence will be low and if Johnson picks up an injury, they may struggle to claim all three points against any opposition.

When all is said and done, I fancy WBA, Boro and Hull to drop; but the sooner we reach 43 points, the better! I keep having this nightmare about an end of season shoot out with Boro, winner takes all!