So we are out of the bottom three but any celebrations and talk of guaranteed survival are a tad premature. For starters, Birmingham have games in hand and seem likely to pick up enough points from them to climb above us. West Brom's win at St Andrews was very bad news indeed. Then there's the little matter of Wolves playing Tottenham tomorrow. Never mind that McCarthy's men seem to be Tottenham's bogey team, Spurs have the little matter of A C Milan on their minds. Wolves look a good bet to win to me.
Most would identify Wigan as favourites for the drop but they were incredibly unlucky to lose at Man City. It was a Green like error that cost them the goal and they could easily have netted three times themselves. And City were lucky not to be reduced to 10 men in the first half after a shocking foul by Micah Richards.
The trouble is, West Brom, Wolves, Birmingham and ourselves are all "too good" to go down, but between us, we have occupied the bottom spots all season. Maybe, just maybe, Blackburn and Blackpool are about to step into our graves as the season draws to its close, but would anybody bet on it? Blackpool's victory over Spurs illustrated perfectly what a crazy season this is!
People are talking about 40 points being enough. I doubt it. We went down with 42 before and I reckon that needs to be the minimum target, with 43 necessary for absolute peace of mind. Back to back wins have given us a great chance of surviving but things may look different after games against Spurs and Man Utd. The pressure is on and this will go down to the wire!
17 comments:
looking at the fixtures for all teams 38 points should be enough, momentum is all at this time of the season and we have it.
Points count, not momentum. Momentum can grind to a halt with back to back tough games. But I hope you are right! Our fixture at Wigan is crucial! As are the home games against Blackburn and Sunderland!
Off topic but I never knew what a good player Hitzlspurger was until I saw him in the last few games. The guy really is a top quality centre midfielder and I would go as far as to say a better all round central midfielder than super Scott. People Im sure will disagree with me but look at how the guy controls the game. He knows just when to slow it down and when to speed things up. His touch is impecable and ofcourse who can forget about the power and accuracy that he has in that left foot. Having said that thay are two different types of midfielders whos styles compliment eachother perfectly. Parker will finaly get to play in the position that he is most adept at playing ( the deepest of a three in midfield ). This is the position that Parker is truly world class in. There really isnt a better defensive midfielder in Britain except maybe Fletcher and Essien in fact other than those two I cant see a better holding midfielder in Europe. Mascherano? ha, he couldn't even get on ahead of Mullins.
ffs HF, if we were top of the league you would still say we were certainties to go down.
0139, I don't say that. But I do warn that this is no time to get cocky.
There was still that 20 or so minutes in the second half when we were under constant pressure and maybe better teams could pick up a goal or two in that time.There certainly are still some frailties to sort out, but still a super game to watch and result and a remarkable improvement.
I think looking at 4-5 points each 3 games now will get us there. We do have some very winnable games left, although knowing us the points will come from the higher placed teams with the odd banana skin thrown in by the cockney boys for good measure! It's a tough run-in, but I think that as long as we're pragmatic in our approach to the rest of the games results and don't panic after maybe losing the odd game we should find a berth in the PL waiting for us come the end of the last game, maybe sooner with the likes of Blackpool and Blackburn wishing to get involved a la The Blades! A free-fall into the Championship will accompany two other "regular" relegations I feel.
I'm not sure I agree that West Broms win today was such bad news. A draw would have been ideal, but at this stage we still don't know who will be where and when. In a month we might look back and say how fortunate that Brum started to slide after the Cup win. And at this stage the more down there the better.
Its just so nuts vis a vie results, HF. The important thing is we look HUNGRY all of a sudden. Like the players have said "enough of this shit".
There is a lot to be played. But we are playing and playing with passion, skill, and desire. I hate to feel optimistic because it usually leads to pain.
But for the first time in a long while I want that next league game to be sooner than later.
Very balanced and realistic post you wrote there mate, Nice one.
I agree Dave and it is bloody frustrating that we have a cup game next!
I'm gonna disagree again, HF. The cup game offers a lot of benefits.
1) Keane to recover
2) Parker to rest his shoulder
3) Upson to not over stress his achilles
4) Obinna to possibly gain match fitness back
And on an emotional level, if Wolves either lose or draw, we get to see ourselves out of the bottom three for two weeks. Although maybe Brum will have a midweek fixture in there to make up the games in hand. And with the news of their financial woes they could be distracted as well.
Less than 40 points will be enough I think. The bottom of the table may look something like this in my opinion:
Birmingham
West Ham
West Brom
Blackpool
Wolves
Wigan
And Blackburn? 3-1 against to go down. Looks an interesting bet to me with a rookie manager and the pressure growing. How Allardyce would laugh!
Theyve still got Blackpool, Wolves Brum and us though HF so chances to take points away from the relegation rivals i.e as good as gaining them.
Plus they score between 20-50% more goals away than the other relegation teams. Teams that score well despite conceding always have a chance.
And they have their necks in front on 32. They will scrape it.
That's three draws and a defeat then! ; }
...3 wins and a defeat would be better no? :)
Spurs are susceptible at the back (although have plenty of goals in them) and Man Utd seem to be hitting some bad form and have defensive worries. If we can get 4points from both of these games then we'll be almost there I reckon.
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