To play out 190 minutes plus of football with only 10 men and run out with an aggregate score of 5-2 in our favour is nothing short of incredible, especially as Southampton and Blackpool were both in the top 3 when we played them. And last night's result was truly huge.
Had we lost - as we should have done a player down and with a non specialist keeper - Blackpool would have been snapping at our calves just 2 points behind, with Birmingham and Reading on our heels, just one further point adrift and Cardiff and Miserablebrough also closing up ready to challenge us down the home straight. The team would have been looking over their shoulders anxiously and my money would have been on us running out of steam.
Instead, the gap to third is now a very healthy six points with just 15 games to play, or 14 in the case of Southampton, Cardiff and Blackpool. Now six points is a brilliant buffer at any point in the season in a division where clubs are forever taking points off each other, but going into the final third of the season is superb.
Let's take our average points a game thus far, enough to see us sitting at the top of the table. 60 points from 31 games is close to Allardyce's 2 points a game target at the start of the season and actually works out at 1.93548 points a game. Now, let's assume Reading or Birmingham match that return over their last 15 games - either would end up on 83 points. To finish above them, therefore, we only need to collect 24 points from 15 games, or a return of just 1.6 points a game. Average out that over a season, and a team would finish with just 74 points, which wouldn't have been enough to finish in the play offs last season!
So to miss promotion now, a rival has to play like Champions between now and the end of the season, and we have to play so poorly that, stretched out over a full season, we wouldn't be good enough to make the top six! Meanwhile, if all our rivals maintain their present average points return per game, we will only need 81 points to finish in the top two, or a return of 1.4 points per game, which over a full season would see a team finish with just 64 points, which is mid table form!
It's going to take a huge cock up for us to miss out from here! Zola and Grant might have managed it but Allardyce surely won't. If we can average 2.33 points a game with only 10 men on the pitch, surely we can get across the finishing line in at least second place from here!
All Allardyce has to do is keep us on the rails!
15 comments:
Bloody hell! What are you; a Maths teacher or something? Look i understand that E = mc2, but under Coldsore Sam, Energy = Manpower x the square of commitment. I thought we were supposed to be a football club!
I can see the financial logic of attaining promotion at all costs even if I don't agree with it but what happens when we're promoted? My concern is that there will just be another set of justifications for playing terrible football. If x+y=z does y = premiership survival and who gives a damn how?
7-3 in our favour mate!
11 men on the pitch when we scored first two against Blackpool but it should be 5-2!
Anony-mouse says,
You must think people are stupid- you're trying to set BFS up for a fall. Promotion is anything but a certainty- six points can be made up in a week, and there is still a third of a season to go.
So you write this drivel knowing you can't lose. If we go up you can downplay Sam and the lad's achievement by saying it was inevitable. If we stay down you can give him a kicking for failing to get promotion. I bet you thought this thread was really clever, but all it's done is to confirm what a nasty piece of work you are.
Now answer the question everyone was asking you earlier- who do you really support. Cos it isn't my team. COYI!
You really are stupid aren't you ananymouse - and I am so disappointed. Of course 6 points can be made up quickly but it can be re-established just as quickly - that's why Allardyce and I set store by stats. Yes the six point gap can be closed and maintained if, for example, Reading win the next four games on the trot and we lose two out of four, but then they are performing at a 100% win ratio and averaging 3 points per game, whilst we are only collecting 1.5 points per game. That may happen -I don't think it has yet this season though - in a narrow window, but then Reading will hit a clutch of difficult fixtures whilst we play a clutch of easier ones and the gap will open again.
I'm not setting Sam up, but you don't seem to have any confidence in him at all! It would take a massive cock up to miss out from here as I say; but you seem to think that Sam may yet pull a dog turd out of the hat. Shame on you. Call yourself a West Ham fan?
Anony-mouse says,
Not even a nice try pr*ck.
Anony-mouse says,
Congrats- you've got to me this time, so I did a bit of research- no calculator required btw. You got it wrong, even using your numpty maths 'logic'.
These things do happen. Reading have won four league games in a row this season. Twice. The second time is still ongoing. And we've averaged less than 1.5 points a game over a period. For example in December we picked up 4 points from 5 games. You do the maths seeing as you've got your calculator out and then you can stick it wherever it's most comfortable.
Btw, I have faith in Sam and think that we've got as good, if not a better chance than anyone else. But like any real fan I know that unfortunately it's not guaranteed. And only a fool would claim that it was.
Night, night.
Absolutely brilliant result, confidence flowing now all the way to the prem.
Very good Anonymouse but you prove my point through your research. What happened the last time Reading won 4 games on the trot? They lost two of the next three! They closed up and then fell back again, just as I predicate.
If you look in four game blocks, you see false patterns, but expand out and you see a clearer picture. Who did Reading beat in those four games? 9 man West Ham (I was at the game and Reading were toothless until the sending off), Brighton at home and Ipswich at home (both 1-0). You would expect to win all three games if you are serious contenders. The one good result was the victory at Leeds. Then who did they lose to? Cardiff away and Hull at home. As soon as they came up against teams in the top six, they lost!
Who have they beaten in the last four game block? Bristol City, Coventry and Burnley at home (note three home games again!) and Derby away. Big bloody deal!
Actually Reading are now the danger but their next game is at Middlesborough and then they have an away trip to Millwall. Would we be surprised if they drew both or lost at Boro? And if we beat Palace, the gap widens again. Look at Southampton. They suffered a terrible run but because of the buffer they established, they are still in second place.
Reading have to travel to Middlesborough, West Ham, Southampton and Birmingham. That's four tough, tough games.
You sir are a pessimist. You have no faith in Allardyce because you have no faith in anything. Compare our squad to Reading's! And we have a six point start!
El martillo(18:11)
Yes, and HF = the square root of a duck's arse(nothing to do with the picture caption).
Take each games as it comes. Looking at the remaining fixtures we have played most of the likely challengers on their own patches. There are 2 tricky games at Cardiff and Leeds but otherwise it is looking good. I know this is West Ham so no doubt there will be some more twists and turns before we are finished.
Mate, if that is a duck in the picture, I'm heading for the nearest pond!
23:07 mate?!?! trust me, no one on here is yours.............
I wonder who will end up with a good ducking then?
Blimey... HF calling someone a pessimist. Yes HF! our very own(ish), bordering on the dark side, bipolar disordered HF. Unbelievable!
The big problem is Portsmouth. If they cannot finish the season I assume their results will be deleted. We have beaten them twice so will have 6 points deducted whilst Southampton have drawn their one game and Reading have lost. This would put Saints on 58 points and us and Reading on 54 points.
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