Wednesday, 22 February 2012
A HUGE WIN - ON THE CUSP OF THE PREM!
To play out 190 minutes plus of football with only 10 men and run out with an aggregate score of 5-2 in our favour is nothing short of incredible, especially as Southampton and Blackpool were both in the top 3 when we played them. And last night's result was truly huge.
Had we lost - as we should have done a player down and with a non specialist keeper - Blackpool would have been snapping at our calves just 2 points behind, with Birmingham and Reading on our heels, just one further point adrift and Cardiff and Miserablebrough also closing up ready to challenge us down the home straight. The team would have been looking over their shoulders anxiously and my money would have been on us running out of steam.
Instead, the gap to third is now a very healthy six points with just 15 games to play, or 14 in the case of Southampton, Cardiff and Blackpool. Now six points is a brilliant buffer at any point in the season in a division where clubs are forever taking points off each other, but going into the final third of the season is superb.
Let's take our average points a game thus far, enough to see us sitting at the top of the table. 60 points from 31 games is close to Allardyce's 2 points a game target at the start of the season and actually works out at 1.93548 points a game. Now, let's assume Reading or Birmingham match that return over their last 15 games - either would end up on 83 points. To finish above them, therefore, we only need to collect 24 points from 15 games, or a return of just 1.6 points a game. Average out that over a season, and a team would finish with just 74 points, which wouldn't have been enough to finish in the play offs last season!
So to miss promotion now, a rival has to play like Champions between now and the end of the season, and we have to play so poorly that, stretched out over a full season, we wouldn't be good enough to make the top six! Meanwhile, if all our rivals maintain their present average points return per game, we will only need 81 points to finish in the top two, or a return of 1.4 points per game, which over a full season would see a team finish with just 64 points, which is mid table form!
It's going to take a huge cock up for us to miss out from here! Zola and Grant might have managed it but Allardyce surely won't. If we can average 2.33 points a game with only 10 men on the pitch, surely we can get across the finishing line in at least second place from here!
All Allardyce has to do is keep us on the rails!
Posted by Hammersfan at 17:24