Five wins will see us safe, but we don't want a winless run to stretch into mid January. If that happens, the teams scrambling to avoid the third from bottom slot will be on our shoulders. Suddenly the two Reading games - and Reading are a bogey team - and QPR and Wigan at home assume massive importance. And whilst QPR are not a bogey team as such, any club managed by 'Arry is a nightmare fixture!
Norwich and Swansea at home are also target games, as is the home fixture against West Brom. Matches away to Villa, Southampton and Sunderland have become must not lose affairs meanwhile.
If you were spread betting, you would be brave to go high on a 43 point target at this stage. I fear we may be sweating before the season ends!