How much longer will our luck hold out? There have been people bemoaning our luck because of injuries and refereeing decisions (although I think we have had more than the rub of the green there over the season) but where luck has favoured us thus far is in serving up some pretty rubbish teams in the Prem to aid our survival. Generally speaking, you aim at 38 points to survive but this season 35 will do it and 34 may even be enough. In fact, if results elsewhere keep going our way, we may already have enough to stay up!
There were three big results for us last night. The failure of Wigan to beat an understrength and knackered Portsmouth team was a huge bonus. Okay, ideally we wanted Pompey to win but did you see the game? Second half, Pompey barely got into the Wigan half. The only tactic was to get bodies between Wigan and the goal and defend in numbers, hoofing it up to the half way line by way of relieving the pressure. I think the ball actually got into the Wigan half five times in the second 45 minutes (apart from crossing the half way line on a clearance, falling to an unchallenged Wigan player and being returned immediately). Wigan looked good running with the ball but their passing, crossing and shooting were woeful.
The Tottenham victory was also good news because it drove another nail in Liverpool's hopes of qualifying for the Champions League. Now there are two teams significantly ahead of them, both with a game in hand. Are Liverpool going to risk a less than fully fit Torres against us on the Monday when they play in the semifinal of the Europa League on the Thursday? What about Gerrard? Isn't this the ideal opportunity to give him a breather? Winning at Liverpool, even against their U19s is probably beyond us but if we could come away with a point, that would be a huge bonus. If only we had played for a point against Wolves, Bolton and Stoke, our position would be so much better now! We also need Tottenham actively engaged come the last game of the season when they roll into Burnley. I know we are playing Man City so we do not need them desperate to win, but I would fancy Burnley against a disinterested Tottenham more than I would fancy us against a Man City team who have already secured Champions League football. The big worry is which Liverpool will show up at Hull. I will be cheering on Athletico Madrid in the semifinals, hoping that Liverpool go to Hull needing to win to secure European qualification of any sort for next season!
And that is why the Villa and Everton draw was good news too, because it keeps both teams on the shoulder of Liverpool! Let's hope Pompey are allowed to take that Europa League spot too - failure to fill out a form should not rule them out!
12 comments:
We owe pompey a huge debt
They beat Hull and Burnley and held Wigan
They Knocked spurs out of the cup
We took 4 points off them this season.
Without them going down we may well have gone.
Play up pompey come back soon to the prem.
If we beat Wigan, we are saved. The only other game I see Wigan getting points from is their match against Hull. But that is the one we don't really mind. Because if they beat Hull then Hull will not be able to catch us. So, Wigan is a must win game like no other. It essentially defines our survival.
The fact that Spurs may now contest the 4th spot until the end is not good news for us. Man City will have to fight for the right to be in the Champions League in the last match of the season with us. I hope that Spurs lose their next few games and as Tevez said at the match with West Ham we would have secured our stay and they would have secured their Champions League position.
You are ignoring Burnley Sav. Then there is the possibility that Hull could beat Liverpool on the last day. If Liverpool have nothing to play for and Hull are fighting for their lives, that is not impossible. Man City are MORE likely to win if the pressure is off in my opinion. That are the Harlem Globe Trotters of the Prem. Give them an exhibition game and all their tricks will be on show and that could prove our undoing. They don't need to play Tevez to destroy us!
You know, I want to thank you for these observations. I was bummed about Spuds win because I wanted Man City to lock up 4th before the last game so they wouldn't need it if we do blah blah blah. But those are all good points. Still, if we are still in danger on that last day I may not be able to handle it. I'd have to do yard work or something. Or go into a medically induced coma.
"If only we had played for a point against Wolves, Bolton and Stoke, our position would be so much better now"
Sorry but I was actually reading this article thinking you might be speaking a little sense for once when you come up with that gem!
We were at home against those teams and we simply had to win. Only the benefit of hindsight allows you to get away with such a stupid comment.
We had absolutely no choice considering the position we were in but to play to beat those teams, and there should be no argument to the contrary.
I'll be at the bloody game! It could be the most agonising 90 minutes of my live since...well since Old Trafford and the Great Escape!
I agree Barron. I called those games "must win" myself. But with hindsight? I know it is a wonderful thing but 3 draws would have seen us on 34 points now and both Bolton and Wolves would have two less points each. We would be as good as safe!
What you fail to consider is that having played for a draw wouldn't have garaunteed us 3 draws would it? We could still have lost, and probably would have the way we have been playing.
So even with the benefit of hindsight, I would still have gone balls-out to win any of those games.
There is no question that it was the right tactic regardless of how things pan out now.
Just sounds like another opportunity for you to criticise.
Absolutely not, I am recognising the benefit of hindsight. Having been at the games, I can't see how any mental attitude would have changed things for the better. The team's tactics were all to cock, irrespective of whether we were trying to win or lose. In fact, my criticism was that the midfield lacked creativity. I accept your point. All I am saying is that had we picked up 3 draws, with hindsight, that would have helped, although at the time we would have regarded it as a disaster.
HF, I don't consider Burnley to be a real issue. If we beat Wigan, we will be 7 points ahead of Burnley, which with our goal difference will effectively be 8 points. Now, I don't see how Burley can pick up 8 points from their remaining 4 games. I know it is not a mathematical certainty (if it was we wouldn't really be discussing it) but it is very unlikely that Burnley will pick up 3 wins or 2 wins and 2 draws from their remaining games. In the unlikely event that they do, don't forget that we also have another 3 extra games that we can also pick points from.
IF we beat Wigan. IF Sav, IF. Our home record against Wigan is poor. In fact, this season our win to games played ratio is appalling. Remember we lost at home to Bolton and Wolves!
I agree with you on that one. Big IF. I wish I could believe it too. But, I am sure we can if Zola doesn't get too clever with the team tactics once again. Defensively they are not much good (but unfortunately neither are we). Anyway, I have not argued that we will beat them. I am only hoping, and yes, praying for it. If we don't screw up on that game I think we can start relaxing and thinking about what happens next year in the Premier League.
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